Bawler / USA: MLS / Chicago Fire
Team profile

Chicago Fire Prediction

Per-game numbers from 51 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
14.3
a game
13.2 faced
On target
5.6
a game
4.6 faced
Goals
1.9 – 1.7
scored – conceded
a game, 51 matches
Next match
53%
Chicago Fire win chance
vs Portland Timbers · Sun 16 Aug 22:00

Chicago Fire prediction: for Chicago Fire's next match — Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers on Sunday 16 Aug, 22:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Chicago Fire win looks most likely (53%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Chicago Fire sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.59 expected goals a game and conceding 1.33. Next up is Portland Timbers, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 53%.

Chicago Fire in numbers

51 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.9
Goals · per game
let in 1.7
Home 1.6Away 2.3
4.6
Corners · per game
give up 4.9
Home 5.4Away 3.8
14.3
Shots · per game
faced 13.2
Home 16.0Away 12.7
5.6
On target · per game
faced 4.6
Home 5.6Away 5.6
Last 6 games
14 Aug
2-1
@ Cruz Azul
4-5
10 Aug
3-1
vs Santos Laguna
7-2
07 Aug
2-0
vs Necaxa
6-3
02 Aug
2-1
vs Charlotte
8-6
25 Jul
1-3
@ New York City
2-1
22 Jul
2-3
@ Inter Miami
4-8

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Portland Timbers · Sunday 16 Aug, 22:00 UTC

Win
53%
Chicago Fire
Draw
26%
Loss
21%
Opponent
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 78%
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Chicago Fire compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.59
Above average
Goals against
1.33
Tighter than most
Record
5W 2D 4L
11 settled
Real goals
1.7 – 1.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.59
Conceded1.33

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 83% of the time on Chicago Fire fixtures (5/6).
Squad availability · Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers
Fetching squad availability…

Injuries, suspensions and doubts for both squads, from FotMob. Updates as kickoff nears.

How Bawler has done on Chicago Fire

73%
of high-confidence calls correct — 8 of 11, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)83%5/6
Result60%3/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Thu 20 Aug@ Orlando City SC
Sun 23 Aug@ Red Bull New York

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 02 Augvs Charlotte FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Jul@ New York City FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Jul@ Inter Miami CF
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 Mayvs Toronto FC
High confidence: 1X
Sat 16 May@ CF Montréal
High confidence: X2
Thu 14 May@ D.C. United
High confidence: X2
Sat 09 Mayvs Red Bull New York
High confidence: 1X
Sun 03 Mayvs FC Cincinnati
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 19 Apr@ FC Cincinnati
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 05 Aprvs Nashville SC
High confidence: X2

Transfer activity

INRobert LewandowskiSTfrom BarcelonaFree transfer
INJosh CohenGKfrom Atlanta UnitedFree transfer
OUTHugo CuypersSTto Monterrey€6.6m
OUTOmari GlasgowRWto Monterey Bay FCLoan
OUTHarold OsorioCMto Alianza FCFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Chicago Fire and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly