> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 09 May, 18:30 UTC
Chicago Fire FC vs Red Bull New York
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
49.4% home31.4% draw19.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Chicago Fire FCstepRed Bull New York
1.45Base xG · rolling 26-match0.94
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.56Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.90
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
8
3
1
1
13
12
5
2
2
10
9
4
1
3
5
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Chicago Fire FC 1–3 Red Bull New York
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+