FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Chicago Fire FC 1–3 Red Bull New YorkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Chicago Fire FC at 49%, draw at 31%, Red Bull New York at 19%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was Chicago Fire FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
49%
Draw
31%
York win
19%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.56 – 0.90
Total 2.46
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 86%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won