FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Colorado Rapids 1–2 FC DallasMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Colorado Rapids at 33%, draw at 32%, FC Dallas at 35%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Dallas.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rapids win
33%
Draw
32%
Dallas win
35%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.32 – 1.36
Total 2.69
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 46%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Colorado's poor conversion history combined with Dallas's marginal xG advantage (1.36 vs 1.32) makes the draw the strongest play at 78% probability despite home disadvantage."