> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 24 May, 01:30 UTC
Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Colorado's poor conversion history combined with Dallas's marginal xG advantage (1.36 vs 1.32) makes the draw the strongest play at 78% probability despite home disadvantage.
Win probability
33.2% home31.9% draw34.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Colorado RapidsstepFC Dallas
1.23Base xG · rolling 26-match1.42
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.32Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.36
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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9
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12
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1
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Colorado Rapids 1–2 FC Dallas
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+