FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Colorado Rapids 0–1 St. Louis CITY SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Colorado Rapids at 34%, draw at 40%, St. Louis CITY SC at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was a draw.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rapids win
34%
Draw
40%
SC win
26%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.96 – 0.82
Total 1.78
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Value
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost