Bawler / USA: MLS / St. Louis CITY
Team profile

St. Louis CITY Prediction

Per-game numbers from 44 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
14.5
a game
14.2 faced
On target
4.7
a game
4.7 faced
Goals
1.4 – 1.5
scored – conceded
a game, 44 matches
Next match
46%
St. Louis CITY win chance
at Sporting Kansas City · Thu 20 Aug 00:00

St. Louis CITY prediction: for St. Louis CITY's next match — Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis CITY on Thursday 20 Aug, 00:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a St. Louis CITY win looks most likely (46%).

St. Louis CITY sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.33 expected goals a game and conceding 1.28. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 1.80 a game against 1.33 expected. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is a trip to Sporting Kansas City, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 46%.

St. Louis CITY in numbers

44 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.5
Home 1.6Away 1.4
5.0
Corners · per game
give up 5.2
Home 6.2Away 3.6
14.5
Shots · per game
faced 14.2
Home 16.6Away 12.4
4.7
On target · per game
faced 4.7
Home 5.4Away 4.0
Last 6 games
16 Aug
3-1
@ San Jose Earthquakes
5-4
02 Aug
1-1
vs Real Salt Lake
9-4
26 Jul
1-0
vs Colorado Rapids
10-1
23 Jul
3-1
@ LA Galaxy
-
17 Jul
3-2
vs Sporting Kansas City
5-6
23 May
3-0
vs Austin
2-2

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Sporting Kansas City · Thursday 20 Aug, 00:00 UTC

Win
46%
This team
Draw
26%
Loss
28%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How St. Louis CITY compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.33
Below average
Goals against
1.28
Tighter than most
Record
6W 3D 1L
10 settled
Real goals
1.8 – 1.0
For / against, per match
Scored1.33
Conceded1.28

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.28 xG per match · -0.17 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on St. Louis CITY fixtures (4/4).

How Bawler has done on St. Louis CITY

90%
of high-confidence calls correct — 9 of 10, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)83%5/6
Result100%4/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sun 23 Augvs Houston Dynamo FC

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Aug@ San Jose Earthquakes
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 02 Augvs Real Salt Lake
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Julvs Colorado Rapids
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Jul@ LA Galaxy
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 17 Julvs Sporting Kansas City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 23 Mayvs Austin FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ D.C. United
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 May@ Colorado Rapids
High confidence: X2
Sun 05 Apr@ New York City
High confidence: 1X
Sun 22 Mar@ St. Louis City
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INCarlo HolseAMfrom Samsunspor€5.2m
INSergio CórdovaSTfrom Young BoysLoan
INAlexandru MatanAMfrom PanetolikosFree transfer
INTahir Reid-BrownLBfrom Orlando City€130k
OUTMarcel HartelAMto Hannover 96€800k
OUTJake Girdwood-ReichCBto Motherwell€600k
OUTJayden ReidLBto Sporting Kansas CityFree transfer
OUTSeth AntwiDMto Birmingham Legion FCFree transfer
OUTEmil JääskeläinenSTto Sporting Club JacksonvilleFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on St. Louis CITY and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly