> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 24 May, 21:00 UTC
Columbus Crew vs Atlanta United FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Columbus's 0.48 xG edge combined with Atlanta's 24% win probability makes the 1X banker (76%) the model's most confident play despite modest home odds.
Win probability
44.9% home31.5% draw23.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Columbus CrewstepAtlanta United FC
1.42Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.54Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.06
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
4
1
1
11
12
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Columbus Crew 2–0 Atlanta United FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+