FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Columbus Crew 2–0 Atlanta United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Columbus Crew at 45%, draw at 32%, Atlanta United FC at 24%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Columbus Crew.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Crew win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
32%
FC win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.54 – 1.06
Total 2.60
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Columbus's 0.48 xG edge combined with Atlanta's 24% win probability makes the 1X banker (76%) the model's most confident play despite modest home odds."