FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Columbus Crew 2–3 Minnesota United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Columbus Crew at 64%, draw at 22%, Minnesota United FC at 14%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was Columbus Crew to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Crew win
64%
Draw
22%
FC win
14%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.21 – 0.94
Total 3.15
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 86%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 14%
✓ Won