> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 02 May, 23:30 UTC
Columbus Crew vs Minnesota United FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
63.8% home21.9% draw14.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Columbus CrewstepMinnesota United FC
2.04Base xG · rolling 26-match0.98
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.21Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.94
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
4
2
1
1
9
9
4
1
2
10
10
5
1
3
8
7
3
1
4
4
4
2
1
5
2
2
1
6
1
1
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Columbus Crew 2–3 Minnesota United FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+