> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 17 May, 10:00 UTC
Como vs Parma
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Como's Champions League desperation and 2:1 xG edge make 1X (78% probability) the safer banker despite modest total goals.
Win probability
54.0% home30.2% draw15.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ComostepParma
1.52Base xG · rolling 26-match0.83
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.64Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.79
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
7
3
1
1
14
11
5
1
2
12
9
4
1
3
6
5
2
1
4
3
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Como 1–0 Parma
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+