Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Parma
Team profile

Parma Prediction

Per-game numbers from 39 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
10.7
a game
13.9 faced
On target
2.9
a game
4.3 faced
Goals
0.8 – 1.2
scored – conceded
a game, 39 matches
Next match
37%
Parma win chance
vs Cagliari · Sat 22 Aug 18:45

Parma prediction: for Parma's next match — Parma vs Cagliari on Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Parma win looks most likely (37%).

Parma sit close to the Serie A average on both sides of the ball, creating 0.97 expected goals a game and conceding 1.48. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.67 goals a game against 0.97 expected. Next up is Cagliari, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 37%.

Parma in numbers

39 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
0.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.2
Home 0.9Away 0.6
3.8
Corners · per game
give up 5.0
Home 4.1Away 3.5
10.7
Shots · per game
faced 13.9
Home 12.4Away 9.0
2.9
On target · per game
faced 4.3
Home 3.2Away 2.5
Last 6 games
14 Aug
2-0
vs Catania
3-5
24 May
1-0
vs Sassuolo
1-1
17 May
0-1
@ Como
2-15
10 May
2-3
vs Roma
3-6
03 May
0-2
@ Inter Milan
3-8
25 Apr
1-0
vs Pisa
7-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Cagliari · Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
37%
Parma
Draw
32%
Loss
31%
Cagliari
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Parma compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
0.97
Below average
Goals against
1.48
Leakier than most
Record
2W 0D 4L
6 settled
Real goals
0.7 – 1.3
For / against, per match
Scored0.97
Conceded1.48

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.24 scored, 1.32 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 0.97 xG per match · -0.27 above the Italy: Serie A average of 1.24.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.48 xG per match · +0.15 vs league average of 1.32.

How Bawler has done on Parma

50%
of high-confidence calls correct — 3 of 6, below the ~65% baseline — a hard team to read
Result60%3/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sun 24 Mayvs Sassuolo
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Como
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 Mayvs AS Roma
High confidence: X2
Sun 03 May@ Inter
High confidence: 1X
Sat 18 Apr@ Udinese
High confidence: 1X
Sat 21 Marvs Cremonese
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INDavid RomeroSTfrom Tigre€7m
INGiovanni DaffaraGKfrom Juventus€6m
INHans Nicolussi CavigliaCMfrom Venezia€6m
INBenjamín CremaschiCMfrom Inter Miami CF€4.5m
INFranco CarboniLMfrom Inter€2.5m
INEl Bilal TouréLWfrom AtalantaLoan
INOusmane DialloRWfrom Dortmund IIUndisclosed
INAymen ZouinLWfrom InterLoan
OUTMateo PellegrinoSTto Fiorentina€23m
OUTJacob OndrejkaLWto FC GroningenLoan
OUTAdrian BenedyczakSTto Kasımpaşa€4m
OUTTjas BegicAMto Sampdoria€1.2m
OUTNahuel EstévezCMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTElia Pliccoto SambenedetteseLoan
OUTDaniel MikolajewskiSTto LuzernLoan
OUTFilippo RinaldiGKto CataniaLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Parma and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly