> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 10 May, 13:00 UTC
Cremonese vs Pisa
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
38.4% home29.9% draw31.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CremonesestepPisa
1.45Base xG · rolling 26-match1.47
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.57Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.41
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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11
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 22.5 Shots + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners + X2
Model 30.0% · @ 3.33x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Cremonese 3–0 Pisa
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+