FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 10 May 2026

Cremonese 30 PisaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026

Cremonese
30
Cremonese win
Pisa
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Cremonese at 38%, draw at 30%, Pisa at 32%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Cremonese.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Cremonese win
38%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Pisa win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.571.41
Total 2.98
Actual
30
Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 44%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.33x
  • Over 22.5 Shots
  • Over 1.5 Goals
  • Over 8.5 Corners
  • X2

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