> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Wednesday 13 May, 23:30 UTC
D.C. United vs Chicago Fire FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Chicago's superior motivation and form overcome DC's home advantage, making the draw the overwhelming 79% probability play.
Win probability
36.6% home30.7% draw32.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
D.C. UnitedstepChicago Fire FC
1.37Base xG · rolling 26-match1.45
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.48Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.39
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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4
5
6
0
6
8
5
3
1
1
8
12
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
D.C. United 1–3 Chicago Fire FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+