FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 14 May 2026
D.C. United 1–3 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 14 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had D.C. United at 37%, draw at 31%, Chicago Fire FC at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was D.C. United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
37%
Draw
31%
FC win
33%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.48 – 1.39
Total 2.87
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 32%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 1.90x
- Under 10.5 Corners✗
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Chicago's superior motivation and form overcome DC's home advantage, making the draw the overwhelming 79% probability play."