Bawler / USA: MLS / D.C. United
Team profile

D.C. United Prediction

Per-game numbers from 45 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.4
a game
13.6 faced
On target
3.9
a game
5.4 faced
Goals
1.0 – 1.9
scored – conceded
a game, 45 matches
Next match
46%
D.C. United win chance
vs New England Revolution · Wed 19 Aug 23:30

D.C. United prediction: for D.C. United's next match — D.C. United vs New England Revolution on Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a D.C. United win looks most likely (46%).

D.C. United sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.21 expected goals a game and conceding 1.22. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is New England Revolution, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 46%.

D.C. United in numbers

45 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.0
Goals · per game
let in 1.9
Home 1.0Away 1.1
4.5
Corners · per game
give up 5.4
Home 4.9Away 4.0
11.4
Shots · per game
faced 13.6
Home 12.0Away 10.8
3.9
On target · per game
faced 5.4
Home 4.1Away 3.7
Last 6 games
15 Aug
1-1
@ CF Montréal
3-5
01 Aug
2-2
vs Nashville
8-3
25 Jul
2-1
vs Toronto
8-5
23 Jul
1-1
@ Houston Dynamo
3-3
23 May
4-4
vs CF Montréal
6-4
16 May
1-1
vs St. Louis CITY
5-8

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs New England Revolution · Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Win
46%
D.C. United
Draw
27%
Loss
27%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How D.C. United compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.21
Below average
Goals against
1.22
Tighter than most
Record
2W 7D 2L
11 settled
Real goals
1.5 – 1.7
For / against, per match
Scored1.21
Conceded1.22

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.21 xG per match · -0.27 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.22 xG per match · -0.23 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on D.C. United fixtures (5/5).

How Bawler has done on D.C. United

73%
of high-confidence calls correct — 8 of 11, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%5/5
Result60%3/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sun 23 Aug@ Charlotte FC

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Aug@ CF Montréal
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 02 Augvs Nashville SC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Julvs Toronto FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Jul@ Houston Dynamo FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 Mayvs CF Montréal
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs St. Louis CITY SC
High confidence: X2
Thu 14 Mayvs Chicago Fire FC
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 May@ Nashville SC
High confidence: BTTS No
Sun 03 May@ New York City
High confidence: 1X
Sun 19 Apr@ Philadelphia Union
High confidence: 1X

More on D.C. United and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly