> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 16 May, 23:30 UTC
D.C. United vs St. Louis CITY SC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
D.C. United's 78% draw probability with superior xG (1.37-1.21) makes X2 the banker play despite home underdog odds.
Win probability
37.4% home32.6% draw30.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
D.C. UnitedstepSt. Louis CITY SC
1.27Base xG · rolling 26-match1.26
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.37Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.21
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
8
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8
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1
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
D.C. United 1–1 St. Louis CITY SC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+