FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 17 May 2026
D.C. United 1–1 St. Louis CITY SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had D.C. United at 37%, draw at 33%, St. Louis CITY SC at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was D.C. United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
37%
Draw
33%
Actual ✓
SC win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.37 – 1.21
Total 2.58
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.46x
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✗
> What we said pre-match
"D.C. United's 78% draw probability with superior xG (1.37-1.21) makes X2 the banker play despite home underdog odds."