FT · GERMANY: Bundesliga · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Dortmund 4–0 FreiburgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Dortmund at 47%, draw at 24%, Freiburg at 29%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Dortmund.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Dortmund win
47%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Freiburg win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.65 – 1.25
Total 2.90
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Dortmund or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 58%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Freiburg Win
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost