Freiburg
Freiburg operate as a tightly matched outfit in the Europa League play-offs, scoring 1.38 xG per match whilst conceding 1.43—a profile that rewards efficiency rather than dominance. Their recent surge is emphatic: four wins in five settled fixtures have restored momentum after a solitary loss. With no immediate fixture scheduled in this window, focus shifts to the model's proven reliability on this side, where Bawler's banker picks have maintained a perfect 100% conversion rate across five selections.
How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Freiburg were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Freiburg are above average there.
How to read this: the solid line is the goals Freiburg actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.
How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Freiburg's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.
When Bawler issues a Banker pick on a Freiburg fixture, the model lands 5 out of 5 (100%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.