Bawler / EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs / Freiburg
Team profile

Freiburg Prediction

Per-game numbers from 49 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.5
a game
13.3 faced
On target
4.5
a game
4.3 faced
Goals
1.6 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 49 matches
Corners
4.1
a game
4.3 against

Freiburg prediction: Bawler's model rates Freiburg at 1.40 expected goals scored and 1.45 conceded per match across 7 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 100% of the time. They have won 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Freiburg fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Freiburg sit close to the Europa League - Play Offs average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.40 expected goals a game and conceding 1.45. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.43 a game against 1.40 expected. Across 7 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Freiburg have been correct 100% of the time.

Freiburg in numbers

49 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 2.0Away 1.1
4.1
Corners · per game
give up 4.3
Home 4.5Away 3.8
12.5
Shots · per game
faced 13.3
Home 14.8Away 10.0
4.5
On target · per game
faced 4.3
Home 5.3Away 3.5
Last 6 games
20 May
0-3
vs Aston Villa
1-8
16 May
4-1
vs RB Leipzig
1-2
10 May
2-3
@ Hamburger SV
4-2
07 May
3-1
vs Braga
4-8
03 May
1-1
vs Wolfsburg
1-7
30 Apr
1-2
@ Braga
1-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Attack vs defence

How Freiburg compare with the EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs average, per match.

Goals for
1.40
Above average
Goals against
1.45
Leakier than most
Record
5W 0D 2L
7 settled
Real goals
2.4 – 1.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.40
Conceded1.45

The grey line on each bar is the EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs average (1.40 scored, 1.40 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Freiburg fixtures (6/6).

How Bawler has done on Freiburg

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%6/6

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

Transfer activity

INMio BackhausGKfrom Werder Bremen€12m
INKeisuke GotoSTfrom Anderlecht€10m
INYannik EngelhardtDMfrom Como€7m
INRihito YamamotoDMfrom St.Truiden€7m
OUTJohan ManzambiDMto Aston Villa€60m
OUTMerlin RöhlRWto Everton€25m
OUTRobert WagnerDMto Dynamo Dresden€850k
OUTChukwubuike AdamuSTto Schalke 04€800k
OUTAlessio BesioLWto WolfsburgUndisclosed
OUTNoah WeisshauptRWto Darmstadt€500k
OUTDavid Amegnagloto Westerlo€320k
OUTYann SturmLWto Eintracht BraunschweigUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Freiburg and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly