> MATCH.PREDICT()·GERMANY: Bundesliga·Saturday 02 May, 13:30 UTC
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
52.6% home24.7% draw22.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Eintracht FrankfurtstepHamburger SV
1.87Base xG · rolling 26-match1.31
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.02Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.26
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 21.0% · @ 4.77x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2 Hamburger SV
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+