Bawler / GERMANY: Bundesliga / Hamburger SV
Team profile

Hamburger SV Prediction

Per-game numbers from 34 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.3
a game
14.5 faced
On target
4.6
a game
5.1 faced
Goals
1.2 – 1.6
scored – conceded
a game, 34 matches
Corners
3.7
a game
5.8 against

Hamburger SV prediction: Bawler's model rates Hamburger SV at 1.20 expected goals scored and 1.95 conceded per match across 3 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 100% of the time. They have lost 2 of their last 3 settled matches. No Hamburger SV fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Hamburger SV are vulnerable at the back, conceding 1.95 expected goals a game against a Bundesliga average of 1.69. Across 3 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Hamburger SV have been correct 100% of the time.

Hamburger SV in numbers

34 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.2
Goals · per game
let in 1.6
Home 1.5Away 0.9
3.7
Corners · per game
give up 5.8
Home 3.8Away 3.6
12.3
Shots · per game
faced 14.5
Home 13.3Away 11.3
4.6
On target · per game
faced 5.1
Home 4.7Away 4.4
Last 6 games
16 May
1-1
@ Bayer Leverkusen
3-8
10 May
3-2
vs Freiburg
2-4
02 May
2-1
@ Eintracht Frankfurt
4-9
25 Apr
1-2
vs Hoffenheim
4-9
18 Apr
1-3
@ Werder Bremen
3-7
12 Apr
0-4
@ Stuttgart
2-8

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Attack vs defence

How Hamburger SV compare with the GERMANY: Bundesliga average, per match.

Goals for
1.20
Below average
Goals against
1.95
Leakier than most
Record
1W 0D 2L
3 settled
Real goals
1.7 – 2.3
For / against, per match
Scored1.20
Conceded1.95

The grey line on each bar is the GERMANY: Bundesliga average (1.67 scored, 1.69 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.20 xG per match · -0.46 above the GERMANY: Bundesliga average of 1.67.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.95 xG per match · +0.26 vs league average of 1.69.

Recent matches (last 3)

Transfer activity

INBilal NadirAMfrom MarseilleFree transfer
INAlbert GrønbækLWfrom Rennes€4.7m
INMartin AdelineAMfrom Troyes€4m
INPatson DakaSTfrom Free agentFree transfer
INKofi AmoakoDMfrom Dynamo Dresden€1.8m
OUTFabio BaldéLWto Strasbourg€7m
OUTRansford KönigsdörfferSTto Mainz 05Free transfer
OUTRobert GlatzelSTto Wolfsburg€1.7m
OUTLukasz PorebaDMto Elversberg€1.6m
OUTAboubaka SoumahoroCBto MallorcaLoan
OUTHannes Hermannto Jahn RegensburgLoan
OUTNoah KatterbachLMto Eintracht BraunschweigLoan
OUTLukas Bornscheinto VfL OsnabrückFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Hamburger SV and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly