FT · GERMANY: Bundesliga · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2 Hamburger SVMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Eintracht Frankfurt at 53%, draw at 25%, Hamburger SV at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Eintracht Frankfurt to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Frankfurt win
53%
Draw
25%
SV win
23%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.02 – 1.26
Total 3.28
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 4.77x
- 1X✗
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓