> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 17 May, 17:00 UTC
Elche vs Getafe
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Getafe's European ambitions create defensive vulnerability that Elche's desperation can exploit, making X2 the banker despite lower home win probability.
Win probability
36.2% home34.5% draw29.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ElchestepGetafe
1.15Base xG · rolling 26-match1.14
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.24Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.09
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
10
11
6
2
1
1
12
13
7
3
1
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3
2
1
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1
1
1
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Under 10.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 1.5 Goals
Model 27.2% · @ 3.68x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Elche 1–0 Getafe
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+