> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Wednesday 17 Jun, 20:00 UTC
England vs Croatia
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 73% because both sides generate identical expected goals (1.42 each) with Kane and Kramarić commanding equal offensive weight at 22% of their team's xG.
Win probability
34.6% home30.9% draw34.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
EnglandstepCroatia
1.42Base xG · rolling 26-match1.42
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.42Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.42
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
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8
6
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12
8
4
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6
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1
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1
1
1
5
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Bukayo Saka 1+ Shot on Target + Over 8.5 Corners + X2
Model 15.7% · @ 6.37x
Take this pick →> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+