Bawler / World: World Cup / England
Team profile

England Prediction

Per-game numbers from 8 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.6
a game
11.4 faced
On target
4.6
a game
3.0 faced
Goals
2.5 – 1.5
scored – conceded
a game, 8 matches
Corners
4.8
a game
5.2 against

England prediction: Bawler's model rates England at 1.61 expected goals scored and 1.17 conceded per match across 12 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 67% of the time. They have won 4 of their last 5 settled matches. No England fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

England carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.61 expected goals per game against a World Cup average of 1.33. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.08 a game against 1.61 expected. Recent form is good, with 4 wins in their last 5. Across 12 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on England have been correct 67% of the time.

England in numbers

8 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.5
Goals · per game
let in 1.5
Home 1.8Away 3.3
4.8
Corners · per game
give up 5.2
Home 5.0Away 4.5
12.6
Shots · per game
faced 11.4
Home 13.3Away 11.5
4.6
On target · per game
faced 3.0
Home 4.0Away 5.5
Last 6 games
18 Jul
6-4
@ France
-
15 Jul
1-2
vs Argentina
1-6
11 Jul
2-1
@ Norway
-
06 Jul
3-2
@ Mexico
2-12
01 Jul
2-1
vs Congo DR
5-3
27 Jun
2-0
@ Panama
7-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Attack vs defence

How England compare with the World: World Cup average, per match.

Goals for
1.61
Above average
Goals against
1.17
Tighter than most
Record
8W 2D 2L
12 settled
Real goals
2.1 – 1.2
For / against, per match
Scored1.61
Conceded1.17

The grey line on each bar is the World: World Cup average (1.33 scored, 1.38 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.61 xG per match · +0.29 above the World: World Cup average of 1.33.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.17 xG per match · -0.21 vs league average of 1.38.

How Bawler has done on England

67%
of high-confidence calls correct — 8 of 12
Goals (Over/Under)67%8/12

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 10)

More on England and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly