> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Wednesday 13 May, 17:00 UTC
Espanyol vs Athletic Club
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Athletic Club's superior defensive record vs. Espanyol's attacking inconsistency makes Under 2.5 Goals the sharp play despite balanced xG.
Win probability
36.7% home28.9% draw34.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
EspanyolstepAthletic Club
1.49Base xG · rolling 26-match1.61
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.61Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.55
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
7
5
3
1
1
7
11
8
4
2
1
2
5
9
7
3
1
3
3
5
4
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 2.5 Goals + Over 22.5 Shots
Model 32.3% · @ 3.10x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Espanyol 2–0 Athletic Club
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+