FT · Spain: La Liga · Wednesday, 13 May 2026
Espanyol 2–0 Athletic ClubMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 13 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Espanyol at 37%, draw at 29%, Athletic Club at 34%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Espanyol.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Espanyol win
37%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Club win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 1.55
Total 3.16
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-1.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 44%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
Bawl OutMixed@ 3.10x
- X2✗
- Over 9.5 Corners–
- Over 2.5 Goals✗
- Over 22.5 Shots–
> What we said pre-match
"Athletic Club's superior defensive record vs. Espanyol's attacking inconsistency makes Under 2.5 Goals the sharp play despite balanced xG."