> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Saturday 16 May, 19:30 UTC
Estoril vs Benfica
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Benfica's 47% win probability and xG advantage (1.60 vs 1.09) justify backing the draw-or-away double at 88% despite Estoril's home status.
Win probability
23.3% home30.8% draw45.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
EstorilstepBenfica
1.01Base xG · rolling 26-match1.66
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.09Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.60
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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0
7
11
9
5
2
1
1
7
12
9
5
2
1
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4
6
5
3
1
3
1
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2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Estoril 1–3 Benfica
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+