Bawler / PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal / Benfica
Team profile

Benfica Prediction

Per-game numbers from 48 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
16.9
a game
9.7 faced
On target
6.0
a game
3.5 faced
Goals
2.0 – 1.0
scored – conceded
a game, 48 matches
Next match
39%
Benfica win chance
at Casa Pia · Mon 17 Aug 19:15

Benfica prediction: for Benfica's next match — Casa Pia vs Benfica on Monday 17 Aug, 19:15 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Benfica win looks most likely (39%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Benfica carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.82 expected goals per game against a Liga Portugal average of 1.23. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.57 a game against 1.82 expected. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is a trip to Casa Pia, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 39%.

Benfica in numbers

48 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.0
Goals · per game
let in 1.0
Home 2.4Away 1.6
7.0
Corners · per game
give up 3.2
Home 7.1Away 7.0
16.9
Shots · per game
faced 9.7
Home 18.7Away 15.0
6.0
On target · per game
faced 3.5
Home 7.2Away 4.7
Last 6 games
13 Aug
1-1
@ Hearts
11-0
09 Aug
2-2
vs Academico Viseu
10-2
09 Aug
2-2
vs Académico de Viseu
10-2
06 Aug
6-1
vs Hearts
6-2
16 May
3-1
@ Estoril
9-2
11 May
2-2
vs Braga
8-2

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Casa Pia · Monday 17 Aug, 19:15 UTC

Win
39%
Benfica
Draw
34%
Loss
27%
Casa Pia
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 77%
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Benfica compare with the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average, per match.

Goals for
1.82
Above average
Goals against
1.04
Tighter than most
Record
3W 4D 0L
7 settled
Real goals
2.6 – 1.1
For / against, per match
Scored1.82
Conceded1.04

The grey line on each bar is the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average (1.23 scored, 1.19 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.82 xG per match · +0.59 above the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average of 1.23.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Benfica fixtures (4/4).
Squad availability · Benfica vs Casa Pia
Fetching squad availability…

Injuries, suspensions and doubts for both squads, from FotMob. Updates as kickoff nears.

How Bawler has done on Benfica

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Result100%4/4
Goals (Over/Under)100%3/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

Thu 13 Aug@ Heart of Midlothian
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 09 Augvs Académico de Viseu
High confidence: 1X
Thu 06 Augvs Heart of Midlothian
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 16 May@ Estoril
High confidence: X2
Mon 11 Mayvs Braga
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 06 Apr@ Casa Pia
High confidence: X2
Sat 21 Marvs Vitoria Guimaraes
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INJhon DuránSTfrom Al Nassr FCLoan
INJakub KaminskiAMfrom 1. FC Köln€17m
INEnzo BarrenecheaDMfrom Aston Villa€12m
INGabriel Índiofrom Athletic Club€4m
INClément LengletCBfrom Atletico MadridLoan
OUTOrkun KökcüAMto Beşiktaş€30m
OUTAntónio SilvaCBto AFC Bournemouth€25m
OUTFlorentinoCMto Burnley€24m
OUTFranjo IvanovicSTto LensLoan
OUTSidny Lopes CabralLBto Trabzonspor€7m
OUTGustavo MarquesCBto Red Bull Bragantino€3.5m
OUTGonçalo OliveiraCBto Rennes€3.5m
OUTGustavo VarelaSTto Monza€2.5m

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Benfica and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly