FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Estoril 0–1 FamalicaoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Estoril at 47%, draw at 25%, Famalicao at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Estoril to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Estoril win
47%
Draw
25%
Famalicao win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.15
Total 2.70
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Estoril or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost