> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Monday 11 May, 19:15 UTC
Estrela vs FC Famalicao
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
FC Famalicao's superior win probability (38%) combined with modest xG edge (1.61 vs 1.51) makes Away Win at 43% odds a sharp value play against overpriced home odds.
Win probability
33.3% home29.1% draw37.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
EstrelastepFC Famalicao
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.68
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.51Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.61
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
4
7
6
3
1
1
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11
9
5
2
1
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5
8
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1
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3
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3
2
1
4
1
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1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 22.5 Shots
Model 27.0% · @ 3.71x
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Estrela 0–0 FC Famalicao
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+