FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 11 May 2026
Estrela 0–0 FC FamalicaoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 11 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Estrela at 33%, draw at 29%, FC Famalicao at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was FC Famalicao to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Estrela win
33%
Draw
29%
Actual ✓
Famalicao win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.51 – 1.61
Total 3.12
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 43%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.71x
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 22.5 Shots✗
> What we said pre-match
"FC Famalicao's superior win probability (38%) combined with modest xG edge (1.61 vs 1.51) makes Away Win at 43% odds a sharp value play against overpriced home odds."