FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Estrela 1–2 FC PortoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Estrela at 47%, draw at 25%, FC Porto at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Estrela to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Estrela win
47%
Draw
25%
Porto win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.15
Total 2.70
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Estrela or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost