> MATCH.PREDICT()·PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal·Sunday 26 Apr, 17:00 UTC
Estrela vs FC Porto
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
46.5% home25.2% draw28.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
EstrelastepFC Porto
1.55Base xG · rolling 26-match1.15
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.55Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.15
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
4
2
1
10
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Estrela 1–2 FC Porto
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+