> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 17 May, 14:00 UTC
Everton vs Sunderland
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Everton's Europa push creates decisive motivation advantage despite modest xG edge, making 1X at 77% the banker play over volatile draw odds.
Win probability
41.3% home32.3% draw26.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
EvertonstepSunderland
1.34Base xG · rolling 26-match1.16
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.45Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.12
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
11
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Everton 1–3 Sunderland
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+