Bawler / England: Premier League / Sunderland
Team profile

Sunderland Prediction

Per-game numbers from 40 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
9.9
a game
13.5 faced
On target
3.3
a game
4.2 faced
Goals
1.1 – 1.2
scored – conceded
a game, 40 matches
Next match
31%
Sunderland win chance
at Ipswich · Sat 22 Aug 14:00

Sunderland prediction: for Sunderland's next match — Ipswich vs Sunderland on Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Ipswich are favoured (40%).

Sunderland sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.17 expected goals a game and conceding 1.47. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 1.60 a game against 1.17 expected. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is a trip to Ipswich Town, where the model has them as underdogs at 31%.

Sunderland in numbers

40 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.1
Goals · per game
let in 1.2
Home 1.3Away 0.9
3.5
Corners · per game
give up 4.9
Home 3.7Away 3.2
9.9
Shots · per game
faced 13.5
Home 11.4Away 8.3
3.3
On target · per game
faced 4.2
Home 3.5Away 3.0
Last 6 games
02 Aug
1-0
@ Wrexham
0-0
31 Jul
0-1
vs Leeds
0-0
24 May
2-1
vs Chelsea
6-2
17 May
3-1
@ Everton
2-3
09 May
0-0
vs Manchester United
6-7
02 May
1-1
@ Wolverhampton
3-6

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Ipswich · Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Win
31%
Sunderland
Draw
29%
Loss
40%
Ipswich
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Sunderland compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.17
Below average
Goals against
1.47
Leakier than most
Record
3W 2D 0L
5 settled
Real goals
1.6 – 0.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.17
Conceded1.47

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.44 scored, 1.47 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.17 xG per match · -0.27 above the England: Premier League average of 1.44.
Tough market: Result
Sunderland matches give the model a harder read here — 2/5 (40%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

How Bawler has done on Sunderland

40%
of high-confidence calls correct — 2 of 5, below the ~65% baseline — a hard team to read
Result40%2/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sun 24 Mayvs Chelsea
High confidence: X2
Sun 17 May@ Everton
High confidence: 1X
Sat 09 Mayvs Manchester United
High confidence: X2
Sat 02 May@ Wolves
High confidence: X2
Sun 22 Mar@ Newcastle
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INThomas MeunierRBfrom LilleFree transfer
OUTEliezer MayendaSTto Rennes€22m
OUTAnthony PattersonGKto Wrexham€9.2m
OUTDennis CirkinLBto Free agentFree transfer
OUTDaniel NeilDMto RangersFree transfer
OUTBertrand TraoréRWto Free agentFree transfer
OUTLeo HjeldeCBto KV MechelenUndisclosed
OUTTimothée PembéléRBto Le HavreFree transfer
OUTArthur MasuakuLBto KonyasporFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

FPL assets at this club (2026/27 projections)

E.Le FéeE.Le FéeMID · £6.0m · 12.4% owned3.5 pts
BallardBallardDEF · £5.0m · 4.6% owned3.2 pts
RoefsRoefsGKP · £5.0m · 4.8% owned3.1 pts
XhakaXhakaMID · £5.5m · 4.9% owned3.1 pts
BrobbeyBrobbeyFWD · £6.0m · 15.8% owned2.5 pts
Next 5:IPS (A)FUL (H)BRE (A)ARS (H)MCI (A)

Full predicted points table → · Fixture difficulty matrix →

More on Sunderland and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly