> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Wednesday 13 May, 23:30 UTC
FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami CF
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Cincinnati's 1.83 xG advantage combined with 86% Over 1.5 Goals probability makes the total the most reliable play despite modest home win odds.
Win probability
41.7% home27.3% draw31.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FC CincinnatistepInter Miami CF
1.70Base xG · rolling 26-match1.63
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.83Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.57
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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10
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6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
FC Cincinnati 3–5 Inter Miami CF
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+