FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 14 May 2026
FC Cincinnati 3–5 Inter Miami CFMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 14 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Cincinnati at 42%, draw at 27%, Inter Miami CF at 31%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-5. The model's headline call was FC Cincinnati to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Cincinnati win
42%
Draw
27%
CF win
31%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.83 – 1.57
Total 3.40
Actual
3 – 5
Total 8 (+4.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 4.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 86%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 47%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.29x
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- 1X✗
> What we said pre-match
"Cincinnati's 1.83 xG advantage combined with 86% Over 1.5 Goals probability makes the total the most reliable play despite modest home win odds."