Bawler / USA: MLS / Inter Miami
Team profile

Inter Miami Prediction

Per-game numbers from 56 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
14.1
a game
11.8 faced
On target
5.9
a game
4.8 faced
Goals
2.6 – 1.7
scored – conceded
a game, 56 matches
Next match
36%
Inter Miami win chance
at Philadelphia Union · Wed 19 Aug 23:30

Inter Miami prediction: for Inter Miami's next match — Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami on Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Philadelphia Union are favoured (39%).

Inter Miami sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.65 expected goals a game and conceding 1.48. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.77 a game against 1.65 expected. Recent form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5. Next up is a trip to Philadelphia Union, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 36%.

Inter Miami in numbers

56 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.7
Home 2.7Away 2.4
5.0
Corners · per game
give up 4.0
Home 5.3Away 4.7
14.1
Shots · per game
faced 11.8
Home 15.5Away 12.4
5.9
On target · per game
faced 4.8
Home 6.5Away 5.2
Last 6 games
16 Aug
1-4
@ Nashville
4-10
13 Aug
2-3
vs Club Leon
11-4
09 Aug
1-2
vs Monterrey
6-4
06 Aug
4-2
vs Atl. San Luis
1-5
01 Aug
2-2
vs Columbus Crew
-
25 Jul
1-0
@ CF Montréal
6-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Philadelphia Union · Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Win
36%
Inter Miami
Draw
25%
Loss
39%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Inter Miami compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.65
Above average
Goals against
1.48
Leakier than most
Record
8W 3D 2L
13 settled
Real goals
2.8 – 2.2
For / against, per match
Scored1.65
Conceded1.48

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.65 xG per match · +0.17 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 89% of the time on Inter Miami fixtures (8/9).

How Bawler has done on Inter Miami

85%
of high-confidence calls correct — 11 of 13, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)89%8/9
Result75%3/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sun 23 Augvs Toronto FC

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Aug@ Nashville SC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 02 Augvs Columbus Crew
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Jul@ CF Montréal
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Julvs Chicago Fire FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 25 Mayvs Philadelphia Union
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Portland Timbers
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 14 May@ FC Cincinnati
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 09 May@ Toronto FC
High confidence: X2
Sun 03 Mayvs Orlando City SC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 18 Apr@ Colorado Rapids
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INCasemiroDMfrom Manchester UnitedFree transfer
OUTBenjamín CremaschiCMto Parma€4.5m
OUTTomás AvilésCBto O'HigginsLoan
OUTAllen ObandoSTto NacionalLoan
OUTFabrice PicaultLWto Atlanta UnitedFree transfer
OUTRyan SailorCBto Seattle Sounders FCFree transfer
OUTRicardo MontenegroCMto Carolina CoreFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Inter Miami and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly