> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 23 May, 23:30 UTC
FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City SC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Cincinnati's 0.73 xG edge and 52% win probability support backing the home side in a fixture favoring attacking output.
Win probability
51.6% home24.9% draw23.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FC CincinnatistepOrlando City SC
2.02Base xG · rolling 26-match1.51
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.18Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.45
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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6
0
3
4
3
1
1
6
8
6
3
1
2
6
9
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1
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5
7
5
2
1
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2
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1
5
1
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1
1
6
1
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
FC Cincinnati 6–2 Orlando City SC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+