FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 24 May 2026
FC Cincinnati 6–2 Orlando City SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Cincinnati at 52%, draw at 25%, Orlando City SC at 24%. The match ended 6-2 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Cincinnati.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Cincinnati win
52%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
SC win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.18 – 1.45
Total 3.63
Actual
6 – 2
Total 8 (+4.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 4.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 49%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Cincinnati's 0.73 xG edge and 52% win probability support backing the home side in a fixture favoring attacking output."