Bawler / USA: MLS / Orlando City
Team profile

Orlando City Prediction

Per-game numbers from 50 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
15.2
a game
14.9 faced
On target
5.5
a game
5.4 faced
Goals
1.8 – 1.8
scored – conceded
a game, 50 matches
Next match
33%
Orlando City win chance
vs Chicago Fire · Wed 19 Aug 23:30

Orlando City prediction: for Orlando City's next match — Orlando City vs Chicago Fire on Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Chicago Fire are favoured (42%).

Orlando City are vulnerable at the back, conceding 2.23 expected goals a game against a MLS average of 1.45. Next up is Chicago Fire FC, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 33%.

Orlando City in numbers

50 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.8
Home 2.0Away 1.6
4.7
Corners · per game
give up 5.3
Home 4.8Away 4.5
15.2
Shots · per game
faced 14.9
Home 15.3Away 15.0
5.5
On target · per game
faced 5.4
Home 5.5Away 5.6
Last 6 games
15 Aug
1-1
vs Cincinnati
10-5
13 Aug
3-2
vs Atl. San Luis
3-6
09 Aug
1-2
vs Club Leon
7-5
06 Aug
2-1
@ Monterrey
5-2
01 Aug
2-3
@ New York Red Bulls
4-5
25 Jul
1-0
vs Nashville
-

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Chicago Fire · Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Win
33%
Orlando City
Draw
25%
Loss
42%
Chicago Fire
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Orlando City compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.29
Below average
Goals against
2.23
Leakier than most
Record
4W 2D 6L
12 settled
Real goals
1.6 – 2.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.29
Conceded2.23

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.29 xG per match · -0.18 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 2.23 xG per match · +0.78 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on Orlando City fixtures (6/8).

How Bawler has done on Orlando City

75%
of high-confidence calls correct — 9 of 12, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)75%6/8
Result75%3/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sun 23 Augvs Real Salt Lake

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Augvs FC Cincinnati
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 02 Aug@ Red Bull New York
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Julvs Nashville SC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Jul@ San Jose Earthquakes
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 May@ FC Cincinnati
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Atlanta United FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 14 Mayvs Philadelphia Union
High confidence: X2
Sat 09 May@ CF Montréal
High confidence: 1X
Sun 03 May@ Inter Miami CF
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 19 Aprvs Houston Dynamo
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INAntoine GriezmannSTfrom Atletico MadridUndisclosed
INDaryl DikeSTfrom Free agentFree transfer
INGriffin DorseyRBfrom Houston Dynamo FC€500k
OUTDuncan McGuireSTto Houston Dynamo FC€1.1m
OUTDagur ThórhallssonRBto CF Montreal€430k
OUTThomas WilliamsCBto Nashville SCFree transfer
OUTYutaro TsukadaLWto Rhode IslandLoan
OUTTahir Reid-BrownLBto St. Louis City€130k
OUTTori RiyonRBto Miami FCFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Orlando City and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly