FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 10 May 2026
FC Dallas 3–1 Real Salt LakeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Dallas at 33%, draw at 38%, Real Salt Lake at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-1. The model's headline call was a draw.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Dallas win
33%
Actual ✓
Draw
38%
Lake win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.01 – 0.93
Total 1.94
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+2.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 83%
✗ Lost
Value
Draw
Pre-match: 41%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 35%
✗ Lost