> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 10 May, 00:30 UTC
FC Dallas vs Real Salt Lake
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
33.1% home38.3% draw28.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FC DallasstepReal Salt Lake
0.94Base xG · rolling 26-match0.96
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.01Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.93
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
14
13
6
2
1
15
13
6
2
2
7
7
3
1
3
3
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
FC Dallas 3–1 Real Salt Lake
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+