> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Thursday 14 May, 00:30 UTC
FC Dallas vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Vancouver's 1.67 xG dominance and 46% win probability makes the away victory the model's sharpest lean despite Dallas' home venue.
Win probability
24.1% home29.9% draw46.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FC DallasstepVancouver Whitecaps
1.08Base xG · rolling 26-match1.73
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.16Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.67
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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10
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
FC Dallas 2–3 Vancouver Whitecaps
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+