> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Saturday 16 May, 19:30 UTC
FC Famalicao vs Alverca
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Famalicao's 41% xG edge with 1X banking 79% probability offers sharper odds than the raw win probability suggests.
Win probability
42.9% home33.1% draw24.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FC FamalicaostepAlverca
1.31Base xG · rolling 26-match1.04
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.41Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.00
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
9
4
2
1
13
13
6
2
1
2
9
9
4
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
FC Famalicao 1–0 Alverca
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+