FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 16 May 2026
FC Famalicao 1–0 AlvercaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 16 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Famalicao at 43%, draw at 33%, Alverca at 24%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Famalicao.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Famalicao win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
33%
Alverca win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.41 – 1.00
Total 2.42
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 21%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.30x
- Under 10.5 Corners✗
- 1X✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
> What we said pre-match
"Famalicao's 41% xG edge with 1X banking 79% probability offers sharper odds than the raw win probability suggests."